ING has just issued a report that says Asian economies could lose more than $115 billion USD in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 due to a slump in tourism following the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Robert Carnell, ING's chief economist for Asia-Pacific said, "If we assume that tourism to and from China basically grinds to a halt in 2020, and extra regional tourism also diminishes, then the cost to the region from lost tourism revenues alone is approximately $105 ~ $115 billion USD."
In a report titled "Holidays in hell", Carnell said the research assumed zero tourism receipts for Asian countries from inbound China visitors as it sought to calculate the total loss from the epidemic.
"That's obviously a gross simplification, but it fits a scenario where the epidemic lingers long after it peaks. Official travel restrictions may be slow to be removed, and travelers may remain wary long after it is safe for them to travel again," the report said.
Fears of a coronavirus pandemic have grown this week after sharp rises in new cases reported in Iran, Italy and South Korea.
According to a tally by Reuters, the virus has infected more than 80,000 people and killed more than 2,700+ in China, most in Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak. Outside of mainland China, the outbreak has spread to more than 29 countries and territories, with a death toll of about two dozen,
From Bali to Bangkok, Asia's main tourism hotspots have suffered thousands of cancellations, even as countries impose travel restrictions to try and halt the spread the virus.
"While Thailand tops the poll for the region as a whole in terms of pure numbers, Chinese tourists are still a very important source of income for other South East Asian economies," ING said.
As part of its analysis, ING included spending by outbound tourists to China, as well as the inbound Chinese tourists that will no longer be visiting countries in the region.
To read the ING report “Holidays in Hell” ... CLICK HERE!!